They used estimates of changes in pasture production in abs statistical divisions as the basis for further estimates of changes in wheat yields and land values. Understanding how much adaptation is likely to occur is central to any study of the impact of climate change on agriculture and is also of paramount importance from a policy perspective di falco, veronesi, and yesuf 2011, di falco 2014. Titles in this working paper series aim to disseminate interim climate change, agriculture and food. The objective of the programme is to fill the climate change knowledge gap by working towards a strategic response to climate change in agriculture.
This can help to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop adaptation. Sphy is used in impact studies to quantify the impact of future climate change on water resources and to assess the effects of climate change adaptation measures. However, there is little systematic knowledge of where climate effects will hit hardest and how agriculture might adapt to a rapidly changing climate. While it receives considerably less attention, the agriculture sector is not an insignificant source of emissions. While agriculture is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, it is also a source of carbon storage in soils. Further, it is the direct and indirect impact of climate change on the demand and supply of agricultural inputs and outputs that, through market signals, rather than simply. Research the food and agriculture organisation of the united nations estimates that the world needs to produce 50% more food by the year 2030. After 2050, the risk of more severe yield impacts increases and depends on the level of warming. Climate change and other sustainable development policies are often, but not always, synergistic. To ensure the viability and competitiveness of agriculture and forestry and sustain rural livelihoods, it is critical to take stock of the impacts of climate change on rural sectors in europe and central asia eca countries and implement appropriate adaptive measures. Anticipatory adaptation is necessary to minimise the negative impacts of climate change, to take advantage of opportunities, and to ensure that food and fibre production is maintained.
Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation ifpri. Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and livelihood of farmers. An overview of impacts, adaptation and mitigation v ictsd ipc foreword when both climate change and china are topics in the same discussion, the focus is typically on energy and manufacturing. The objective is to provide a synthesis of the evidence relating to the impact of agriculture on climate change, as well as the impact climate change is projected to have on this sector. Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems.
Climate change and agriculture impacts, adaptation and mitigation by anita wreford, dominic moran and neil adger climate change is likely to have significant impacts on the agricultural sector to which farmers will have to adapt. Climatechange effects on crop production, no co2 fertilization. The costs of agricultural adaptation to climate change. Sulser and tingju zhu and claudia ringler and siwa msangi and amanada palazzo and. Our analysis shows that there is a range in how fba companies understand, manage, and communicate about climate change adaptation. Some existing policies have important implications for adaptation, e. No 21, food policy reports from international food policy research. There is growing evidence that policy decisions eg. Rice yield change under climate change and adaptation scenarios. Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to brazils gdp growth, there is growing concern that brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change.
These are some examples of countries that are already engaged in efforts to assess the impacts of climate change and to formulate adaptation plans. Khandaker mainuddin senior fellow, aminur rahman, nazria islam and saad quasem. Impacts and adaptation options james ka benhin1 with contributions from glwadys gbetibouo centre for environmental economics and policy in africa ceepa. This report examines the economic and policy issues related to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation responses and to the mitigation of greenhouse gases from agriculture. About 30% of global ghg emissions come from the agricultural sector including forestry ipcc wgi, 2007. The pasture production estimates were derived from crimp et al.
Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation international food policy research institute washington, d. Addressing climate change can be considered an integral element of sustainable development policies. Agriculture will be directly affected by all indications and consequences of climate change, such as droughts and floods, storms and tornados, rising sea levels, salinisation of groundwater, more frequent and extreme weather events, increasing species extinction and the spread of old. The role of adaptation is central to the debate surrounding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Climate change and agriculture impacts, adaptation and. Faoadapt, 2011 develops innovative, userfriendly tools and methods for assessing vulnerability, present and future impacts as well as costs and benefits. The ipcc analysis on climate change impacts third assessment report estimates a general reduction of potential crop yields and a decrease in water availability for agriculture and population in many parts of the developing world see table 1. Impact of climate change on agriculture and rural development 2. This research area examines the potential effects of climate change on. Essays on the economic impacts of climate change on. Planning and costing agricultures adaptation to climate change in the salinityprone cropping system of bangladesh 1 contacts. According to study and forecast of the intergovernmental panel on climate change ippc and the world bank, in vietnam, the sea level rising 1 meter will flood about. Description this book contains 17 chapters focusing on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, food security, water resources and economic stability. Miscellaneous see more details report presents research results that quantify climatechange impacts i.
Effects of global climate change on agriculture changes in the incidence and distribution of pests and pathogens sutherst et al. The benefits and costs of climate change for industry, settlement, and society will vary widely by location and scale. A large and growing body of research has investigated the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and. A case study of sirdibas vdc, manaslu conservation area, gorkha as a partial fulfillment of the requirements of m. Climate change, agriculture, and food security research program, aiming to promote awareness and uptake of these practices from the farm to the international policy level. The choice of adaptation methods by farmers depends on various social, economic and environmental and institutional factors bryan et al. A changing climate will inevitably impact on the natural environment, including agriculture. Estimating the costs and benefits of adapting agriculture. Integrated modeling framework for climate change impact assessment 2 a. The impact of climate change on agriculture in asia request pdf. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most vulnerable to climate change because weather is a significant input in agricultural production systems. Can impacts of climate change and agricultural adaptation. Climate change, adaptation, and agricultural output.
Adaptation policy instruments for agriculture existing policies. This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture in europe. Impact of climate change on crop production and food security in south asia and latin america 5. Climate change mitigation, adaptation and sustainability in. This increase in production is vital due to increases in human population and other factors such as changes in diet. Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation 2009 description the report is a food policy report and presents research results that quantify the climate change impacts on agriculture, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human wellbeing. Food security and adaptation to climate change a position. Goals objectives the overall objective of the project is to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and agricultural markets, as well as adaptation mechanisms and ways that agriculture could contribute to climate change mitigation. Adaptation to climate change in europe and central asia agriculture 1. Hence, agriculture has been a major concern in the discussions on climate change.
Global warming affects agriculture in a number of ways, including through. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in southern regions, and create new opportunities in some northern areas. The economic impact of climate change and adaptation measures in the outermost regions june 2014 structure of this report this report presents the findings of a study on the economic impacts of climate change and adaptation measures in the outermost regions1 or of the european union eu. In turn, food and fiber production is essential for sustaining and enhancing human welfare. The main drivers of agricultural responses to climate change are biophysical effects see table 2 and. Planning and costing agricultures adaptation to climate. Mar 25, 2014 climate change impacts and adaptation. Not only is agriculture one of the main drivers of climate change, it is also its most significant victim. Transformational adaptation in and of agriculture was recently.
Climatesmart agriculture includes practices and technologies that sustainably increase pro ductivity, support farmers adaptation to climate change, and reduce levels of greenhouse gases. Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation 2009 description the report is a food policy report and presents research results that quantify the climatechange impacts on agriculture, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human wellbeing. The feasible adaptation practices that could be adapted include sowing time adjustments, stress tolerant varieties and short duration cultivar. Sustainable food production under a changing climate is among the most important international research priorities 1,2. To meet national development, food security, climate adaptation and. If we fail to successfully manage the process of adapting agriculture to climate change, we will have to expect a sharp decline in food production, famine and unprecedented setbacks in the fight against poverty in developing countries. There is a global consensus among climate and agricultural scientists about the need to quantify the likely impacts of climate change on crop yields due to their significant consequences on both food prices and the global economy 35. We derived the direct costs for planned adaptation in agriculture with respect to three alternative scenarios of climate changeinduced productivity shocks of.
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. To link to this object, paste this link in email, im or document to embed this object, paste this html in website. In the west african sahel, a range of indigenous practices contour stone bunds, halfmoons, zai address regional challenges of rainfall runoff and erosion, while increasing organic matter within the regions soils. Rosegrant, jawoo koo, richard robertson, timothy sulser. The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to both climate change and variability is well established in the literature. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy. Cgiar research program on climate change, agriculture and food security ccafs. November 2011 costing agricultures adaptation to climate change. Jan 11, 2017 amicaf analysis and mapping of impacts under climate change for adaptation and food security is a project funded by japan. Gerald nelson, mark rosegrant, jawoo koo, richard robertson, timothy sulser, tingju zhu, claudia ringler, siwa msangi, amanda palazzo, miroslav batka, marilia magalhaes, rowena valmontesantos, mandy ewing and david lee. There is little disagreement now that the climate is changing, and that such changes could fundamentally affect humanitys collective ability to feed itself. Nelson senior research fellow environment and production technology division 5 october 2009 2. Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation 2009. Miscellaneous see more details report presents research results that quantify climate change impacts i.
These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across european regions by analysing over. Analysis and mapping of impacts under climate change for. Nelson and mark w rosegrant and jawoo koo and richard robertson and timothy b. The major impacts of agricultural landuse change are occurring in tropical rainforest regions such as brazil. Climate change will have large, but still uncertain, effects on agriculture. In agriculture, the scale of the climate change challenge and the growing in. Investments are needed in agricultural research, improved irrigation, and rural roads to increase market access for poor farmers. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation. The impact of climate change on food prices will depend on the direction and magnitude of climate change, and on the agricultural sectors adaptive capacity, the latter being affected by the chosen adaptation strategies.
In this report we provide esti mates of the impacts on human wellbeing. Conservation agriculture covers nearly 157 million. Flood inundation under 30 cm sea level rise and current hydraulic structures in the mekong delta. The government and policymakers should support sustainable agriculture, farming practices and new technologies.
On the impact of climate change on agriculture, mendelsohn 2014 focused his study in asia because asia produces two thirds of the worlds food but there is a large knowledge gap on the impact of climate change on agriculture in the literature. Ipcc wgii, 2007 and since the costs of mitigation from agricultural sector are relatively low, agriculture is expected to play an. While agriculture is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, it is also a source of carbon storage in. Climate change and its consequences will have a decisive impact on productivity in agriculture. November 2011 costing agricultures adaptation to climate. Youth decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate change. Rosegrant, jawoo koo, richard robertson, timothy sulser, tingju zhu, claudia ringler, siwa msangi, amanda palazzo, miroslav batka, marilia magalhaes. Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in south asia. Because climate change magnifies existing problems, he added, simply using existing resources more efficiently can help.
The costs of agricultural adaptation to climate change world bank. Adaptation process to climate change in agriculture 84 change, then intended to climate change and if there were no constraint ultimately farmers adapt to climate change. The structural approach helps in estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields across different locations and cropping systems and offers the ability to simulate the effects of alternative adaptation strategies challinor et al. The impact of climate change on agriculture will help to clarify the perception of the problem and quantify the impact, contributing to the formulation of sustainable livelihoods. The general consensus is that changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will. Policy around irrigation and groundwater management will be critical in future. Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation, authorgerald c. Introduction climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Climate change clearly represents one of the more pressing challenges of our time. Climate change and agriculture in the united states. National plan for adaptation to the impacts of climate change. The use of annual variation in temperature and precipitation to estimate the impact of climate change was pioneered by deschenes and greenstone 2007, who use annu al countylevel data in the united states to estimate the impact of climate on u.
Agriculture climate change in modelling adaptation to. Special series on climate change and agriculture in africa isbn 19201600109 discussion paper isbn 19201602, july 2006 climate change and south african agriculture. Climate change and agriculture impacts and costs of adaptation gerald c. Agriculture is one of the largest contributors to the gdp in south asia, besides being the main source of employment for a labor force of millions. Pdf climate change impact on agriculture and costs of. These actions can be mitigation, to prevent greenhouse gas ghg emissions or reduce their atmospheric concentration, or adaptation, to adjust to actual or expected climate and its effects field et al. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of shortrun crop failures and long run. The economic impact of climate change and adaptation in the. The effects of climate change are tangible and demand actions pielke et al.
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